Pashinyan hints at a “Plan B”: Can Azerbaijan save Armenia?

“Gas is not cheap in Armenia. The price increase along the route from the border to the consumer is the largest compared with other countries. There is no area in which we will not pursue diversification. The political decision is that we will develop our independence and statehood. The rest are current issues, and there may be specific solutions to specific situations.”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said this at a briefing on September 11. He noted that if an opportunity arises to purchase gas from a second or third source, the authorities will take this step.

These remarks suggest that Nikol Pashinyan is preparing for Russian gas pressure. The question is: What options is Pashinyan counting on? Could Azerbaijani gas save Armenia?

Speaking to TodayPress TV on the matter, economist Emin Garibli said that Azerbaijan is meant when an alternative source is mentioned. At the same time, he noted that gas is also cheaper in Georgia than in Armenia:

“Armenia is currently facing certain pressures, particularly from Russia. It is pursuing a relatively independent policy and, under the laws it has adopted, is choosing integration and moving toward Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin also noted that it is impossible to join the European Union without leaving the Eurasian Economic Union. Joining the European Union is not something that can be achieved in one or two years. If this decision has been made, naturally, the pressure will increase. However, we do not know how successful this will be. For example, we know the experience of Eastern European countries. Some have been successful, such as Poland and the Baltic states. There has also been an unsuccessful case, namely Ukraine. We do not know what fate awaits Armenia.

President Ilham Aliyev has stated in his speeches that, first of all, we will supply Nakhchivan with our own electricity, and we are most likely ready to supply Armenia with electricity as well. If Armenia pursues an adequate policy and accepts the realities, naturally, it will face less pressure. Azerbaijan supplies gas not only to Armenia, but also to many countries, and this number will increase.”

The expert also discussed another possibility:

“Gas could also be supplied from Iran. However, this may only be possible at a certain stage, because Iran’s situation is not particularly good either. Therefore, it seems to me that this mainly concerns Azerbaijan. If the Armenian government takes steps in line with its national interests, it can succeed.

What is our policy? We want to open transport and communication routes and transport our products through them to Nakhchivan, Türkiye and Europe. This is essential both for the Armenian population and for the Armenian state. I believe that if Armenia takes the appropriate steps, it will be more successful.”

Giymat Mahir