Azerbaijan must be prepared for Iran’s unfriendly moves – What is happening south of the Araz River? – ANALYSIS

The Iran-Israel conflict, which could erupt once again in the Middle East, is no longer confined to the fronts in Gaza or Lebanon. The flames have nearly reached our southern borders. Reports of Iranian military equipment and ballistic missile launchers being spotted yesterday south of the Araz River, directly in the border area with Azerbaijan, are a serious cause for concern.

What does Tehran’s decision to move its military manoeuvres so close to our border amid Israel’s regional strikes indicate? What could Azerbaijan face if the wider Middle East confrontation escalates into a full-scale conflict?

Commenting on the issue in an interview with TodayPress TV, political analyst Abutalib Samadov said that an escalation of the Iran-Israel confrontation into a large-scale war could pose serious threats not only to the region but also to the wider world.

According to him, the situation is becoming even more complicated because the United States is directly involved in the conflict.

“If, as expected, the Iran-Israel war had begun after the November 3 elections, it would not have posed such a serious problem for either the world or the countries of the region. Perhaps the war would not have lasted long. The sides would have exchanged missile strikes, declared themselves victorious and withdrawn. But the problem is that the war could involve the United States, Israel and Iran, and that has effectively been the case so far.

“Additional aircraft carriers, new weapons and bomber aircraft have been deployed to the region. There has even been talk of the possibility of strikes involving nuclear weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons.”

The analyst stressed that Iran has issued threats extending beyond the Middle East in the event of a possible war, and that this situation must also be closely monitored from the perspective of Azerbaijan’s security.

“Iran, true to form, has begun threatening the entire world. It has declared that its strikes will extend beyond the Middle East and target the heart of Europe and military bases located there. There have even been certain claims concerning the South Caucasus. It is therefore natural that renewed military operations could create certain problems for Azerbaijan as well. We must be prepared for Iran’s unfriendly moves. Although no action has been taken against Iran from Azerbaijani territory, nor could any such action be taken, the Azerbaijani army and I, as a citizen, must nevertheless take into account the possibility of unexpected developments and be prepared,” he said.

The analyst believes that the likelihood of Iran taking military action against Azerbaijan is low.

In his view, Tehran’s main targets could be US military bases in the region and the countries hosting them.

“I believe Iran will not take such a step. The main targets will be US military bases in the region and the countries where those bases are located. Attempts to strike European countries are also possible. Such actions could ultimately lead to the formation of a large coalition against Iran. Tehran should have taken these threats into account.”

He also pointed out that diplomatic agreement remains possible, with some signs of moderation emerging in the positions of the parties.

“However, the possibility of an agreement still remains. Developments indicate that Iran, too, is showing some willingness to move away from its previous position. Although this moderation is not at the desired level, it is noticeable.

“Let us hope that this approach will ultimately lead to the signing of a new document. Despite all the pressure and persuasion, Trump says he has not yet made a decision to launch a strike. We hope the issue will finally be resolved peacefully. Vice President Vance’s efforts will bear fruit, and our region will be spared a very serious threat — indeed, the entire world will be saved from a major danger.”

Jala Rovshan