The day that could determine Trump’s fate has arrived – Americans head to the polls

Midterm elections are being held across the United States today.

For months, media coverage and forecasts have been pointing in the same direction: Democrats are expected to win both the House of Representatives and the Senate with relative ease. Polls give Democrats an 8–9 percentage-point lead, while forecasting models put their chances of winning the House at an almost certain 90–96%. Their estimated chances of gaining control of the Senate range from 60% to 80%. This consistent, long-running narrative has itself become a factor capable of influencing the election dynamics.

For the past four to five months, virtually the same story has been repeated almost every day: a Democratic lead, an easy victory and expectations of a “blue wave”. Such an atmosphere can create a classic complacency effect among voters. Some Democratic supporters may assume the outcome is already decided and become less inclined to turn out. Republican voters, by contrast, may find this narrative motivating: “Everyone is already declaring our defeat, so we need to mobilise even more.” Similar situations have occurred in previous elections, when media coverage and polling declared one side the overwhelming favourite, prompting an unexpectedly strong mobilisation by the other.

A Democratic advantage in the House of Representatives appears more realistic. The current electoral map and national mood point in that direction. The Senate, however, is a different matter. The margins are extremely narrow in several states. Polls in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Maine show closely matched figures, many within the margin of error. In such tight races, a polling error of just a few percentage points or a difference in election-day turnout could completely change the outcome. If Republicans secure higher-than-expected turnout in these states, they could retain the status quo in the Senate or prevail by a very narrow margin.

More than 57 million early votes had been cast by election day, setting a record for midterm elections.

Although Democrats have an advantage in early voting in states with party registration, Republican participation appears stronger in some states, including Texas and Florida. While these figures indicate high voter interest, the actual outcome will depend on mobilisation on election day.

The fact that the “media machine” has been speaking with such a unified voice is itself a risk.

Polls have made systematic errors in the past, particularly when they have failed to accurately measure the actual mobilisation of certain voter groups. The same scenario could unfold this time: the numbers put Democrats ahead, but stronger motivation among Republican voters at the ballot box could close the gap. Instead of the anticipated Democratic “landslide”, the result could be a much closer contest, with surprises in some states.

We shall wait and see. The picture will become clearer as the first results come in on election night. As noted, if Democrats win the House as comfortably as expected but unexpected shifts occur in one or two Senate races, this could be a sign of the reverse effect of the media narrative and polling projections that have shaped expectations in recent months.