The moment Azerbaijan steps back, Russia will overthrow Pashinyan

Nikol Pashinyan’s recent attempts to delay the signing of a peace agreement under various pretexts, slow down constitutional amendments and buy time by relying on Washington – particularly the support of liberal and Democratic circles in the United States – represent one of the most dangerous political traps into which Armenia’s leadership has fallen. The Democrats’ “security umbrella” in the White House and Europe’s observer missions are no reliable safety net for Yerevan. Chasing this illusion, Pashinyan fails to understand that his own government will be the first and hardest hit by this political gamble.

The reality is that one of the main factors currently keeping the Pashinyan regime in power in Armenia and protecting it from domestic revanchist retaliation is precisely the firm yet stable geopolitical framework established by Azerbaijan. By invoking international law and asserting its position as the victorious side, Baku is keeping Yerevan at the negotiating table. This, in turn, prevents radical revanchist forces in Armenia, linked to the country’s militaristic and criminal past, from launching a full-scale uprising at home.

If Azerbaijan withdraws from the process, suspends negotiations with Yerevan, pulls back to its own borders and adopts a wait-and-see approach, Pashinyan’s government would not last even a few weeks. Forces aligned with Moscow, remnants of the “Karabakh clan” and the domestic opposition would overthrow Pashinyan right before the eyes of the West. Neither statements from Washington nor the monitoring presence of the French gendarmerie would be enough to prevent an internal coup in Yerevan.

Pashinyan and his team are playing a very dangerous game. Official Baku has repeatedly demonstrated what language must be used with a counterpart that fails to understand diplomatic language and civilised calls for peace, and instead seeks to buy time while attempting to stab Azerbaijan in the back. The 44-day Second Karabakh War in 2020 and the one-day anti-terrorist operation in 2023 are the clearest and undeniable proof of this. Azerbaijan demonstrated to the entire world that it had the military strength to break the enemy’s resistance, end the occupation and force it to sign a capitulation document.

Yerevan faces a choice: either abandon the empty promises of Democrats in Washington and sign a genuine and final peace agreement directly with Baku, the dominant power in the region, or fall victim to its own illusions, face collapse from within and once again confront Azerbaijan’s “Iron Fist”. The Azerbaijani Army has made it abundantly clear to Yerevan what awaits those who turn their backs on peace.

Ismayil Shahli