What will the US election results mean for Iran? – Three possible scenarios

A Democratic victory in the US midterm elections would have implications for the Donald Trump administration’s policy toward Iran. A shift in the balance of power in Congress could complicate Washington’s strategy on both war and negotiations with Tehran.

TodayPress TV reports that political analyst Asif Narimanli made these remarks while commenting on the possible outcomes of the US midterm elections.

According to the analyst, one of the main reasons for the Republicans’ defeat was rising fuel prices and inflation amid the war with Iran. He believes that stronger Democratic positions in Congress would narrow Trump’s room for manoeuvre:

“Democrats will have oversight over military spending as well as foreign policy matters. This will limit Trump’s room for manoeuvre. Democrats, who favour negotiations, could pressure the administration to reach an agreement with Iran. The election defeat could also push Trump to focus more on domestic policy.”

He believes the election results do not mean that the United States will return to a nuclear deal or lift sanctions in the near future. Nevertheless, the current situation could strengthen Iran’s position:

“One of Iran’s main strategies was to delay an agreement until the US midterm elections, influence the outcome and prepare for a scenario in which the Republicans would lose. In theory, it now appears to have achieved this. At the same time, the outcome of the election in Israel has also created a favourable picture for Tehran. Although the far right led by Benjamin Netanyahu has gained the upper hand, uncertainty remains over the formation of a coalition government. As a result, the prospects for plans to wage war against Iran in Washington and Tel Aviv are being called into question.”

The expert stressed that the threat of war has not disappeared. He outlined three possible scenarios for the period ahead.

The first scenario is an agreement between the United States and Iran.

According to Asif Narimanli, Trump could reach a deal with Tehran to ease domestic political pressure and improve his party’s standing ahead of the next elections. However, Washington is expected to maintain its firm position on the nuclear issue:

“Iran could use the situation to secure an agreement at the negotiating table while making fewer concessions and achieve at least some easing of sanctions. However, this prospect remains uncertain because the forces holding power in Tehran favour a hardline approach.”

The second scenario involves war and negotiations continuing in parallel. Under this option, the United States could maintain talks while putting pressure on Iran through limited strikes:

“Washington could seek to push Tehran away from refusing its maximum demands, thereby laying the groundwork for military action. The Trump administration could strengthen the argument that war is the only option by portraying Iran as a threat to US national security. In this scenario, Iran’s choices and psychological resilience will also be decisive.”

The third scenario is a decisive strike against Iran. Although the expert considers this possibility unlikely, he does not rule out the prospect that the domestic political interests of Trump and Netanyahu could lead to military escalation:

“Although the midterm election results may be unfavourable, they remove the obstacle that required Trump to act cautiously because of the elections. On the other hand, he may need a victory over Iran to protect his standing. Meanwhile, amid difficulties in forming a government, Netanyahu could expand his strategy of safeguarding Israel’s security in an effort to rally domestic political and public forces around him. This could once again bring the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran to the forefront.”

According to the political analyst, political changes in Washington and Tel Aviv may give Iran temporary breathing room, but the military threat remains.

Jala Rovshan