The French Republic is collapsing — Is Europe searching for a new Hitler?

The turmoil France is experiencing today is far more than a random spark or ordinary social discontent. It is the inevitable explosion of years of accumulated anger, a failing governing apparatus and global power struggles. The events suggest that the Fifth Republic, which has existed since 1958, is nearing its final days, while France is being pushed towards either a Sixth Republic or a fundamental nationalist transformation.

This situation is primarily a direct consequence of the legitimacy crisis facing the Macron administration. According to 2026 sociological indicators from CEVIPOF, 78% of French people have no confidence in politics, while 72% consider current politicians corrupt. For nine consecutive years, the population’s basic social needs have been neglected. The Yellow Vests movement erupted in 2018 after fuel prices rose by 23%, bringing 300,000 people onto the streets and sustaining protests for two months. In 2023, 1.2 million people took to the streets to oppose raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. The government forced the decision through by bypassing parliament under the Constitution’s notorious Article 49.3. Public anger never subsided, however, and the government was forced to effectively freeze the reform in 2025.

Macron’s stubbornness has pushed the country towards the brink, and the figures speak for themselves. An Ipsos BVA-Cesi poll dated October 10, 2026, put public support for Macron at 15%, the lowest level recorded since 2017; 82% of the public were completely dissatisfied with him. In an Elabe poll, respondents gave the president just 2.4 out of 10, while support among his own voter base fell to 38%. A leader in this position cannot remain in power without further polarising society.

Dangerous scenarios involving security services and radical groups are unfolding on the streets. During the October 17 protests, the Interior Ministry reported 550,000 demonstrators, while the CGT trade union put the figure at 800,000. On the same day, 1,800 people were arrested and more than 500 police officers were injured. However, Amnesty International France maintains that 85% of the more than 5,000 arrests carried out by police involved underage secondary-school students. Tear gas and rubber bullets are being used against children, and a 17-year-old lost his hand after being struck by a police grenade. The sudden transformation of peaceful school students into radicals setting cities ablaze is no coincidence: state-orchestrated vandalism is intended to instil fear in the public. The scenario is the same everywhere: shop windows are smashed in Paris, a tourist office is attacked in Lyon, and the historic town hall in Limoges, built in 1883, is set on fire. The government then cries that there is “chaos”. The objective is clear: to overshadow students’ legitimate demands and justify police violence. Although 36 investigations into alleged police violence have been opened, there have been no tangible results.

All this is allegedly part of a plan to declare martial law or a state of emergency six months before the 2027 presidential election. With Macron’s approval rating at 15%, public debt reaching 115.6% of GDP, the budget deficit standing at €152.5 billion and Sébastien Lecornu’s government demanding €44 billion in savings, creating chaos and then postponing the election under emergency powers would be the easiest way out. Today, 80,000 police officers, 24 Centaure armoured vehicles, drones and water cannon have been deployed on the streets. Although Lecornu told the Senate that 937 police officers, 248 students and 149 teachers had been injured, the overwhelming majority of the 6,629 people arrested were members of the student movement, trade unions and left-wing parties. The aim, according to this interpretation, is to silence the opposition completely. Florian Philippot, leader of the right-wing Patriots party, has also openly claimed that Macron is preparing to cancel the 2027 election by invoking external threats, particularly Russia.

At the same time, a policy of corruption and distraction is being pursued. Fuel prices have reached record levels, and 54% of the population considers declining purchasing power its biggest problem. Yet, as protests began, these issues disappeared almost entirely from the media agenda, despite ongoing questions about McKinsey’s work, opaque public spending and tax concessions for billionaires. European bureaucrats share responsibility for this, too. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission and the European Parliament have remained silent for years about France’s social crisis. They have said little as the consequences of an energy crisis and rising prices play out on the streets of Paris. When 855 people are arrested in a single day in the Paris region, 78 teachers are injured and 24 schools are set on fire, the European Parliament says not a word. Europe reacts immediately to a demonstration of just ten people in another country, yet when its own citizens are beaten in Paris, the matter is treated as an “internal affair”; elsewhere, it becomes a “human rights” issue. This, the argument goes, is Europe’s classic double standard.

Four major global agendas and competing interests lie behind this chaos.

First is the US strategy to weaken Europe. Since 2022, Washington has allocated $370 billion in subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), drawing European industry across the Atlantic. Three major French factories have already moved their operations to the United States. A weakened France means a Europe dependent on Washington. For the US, a France struggling with chaos is therefore preferable to a strong Macron administration: the idea of an independent European army would be undermined, leaving NATO as the sole dominant force.

Second is Brussels’ policy of “austerity dictatorship”. The European Commission is demanding €54 billion in cuts to reduce France’s debt from 113% to 90%. This money would have to come directly from education, healthcare and pensions. Lecornu’s 2026 budget is built around precisely these measures, meaning the decisions fuelling unrest in Paris were effectively written in Brussels.

Third is the Russia–China axis, which is allegedly seeking to intensify the chaos. According to a statement attributed to France’s domestic intelligence agency, the DGSI, in 2025, foreign bot networks were amplifying the “Bloquons tout” (“Block Everything”) movement on TikTok. The alleged aim is to destabilise Europe’s only independent nuclear power and pave the way for anti-NATO forces to come to power in 2027.

Fourth is Macron’s own plan. Unable to run for another term in 2027, the president allegedly wants to create chaos, postpone the election under emergency powers or keep a centrist technocrat in power. The article compares this scenario with Charles de Gaulle’s actions in 1958 and his use of emergency measures in 1961 to preserve the system.

The course of events is said to point towards three possible scenarios.

The first, a relatively mild scenario with a 30% probability, would see the government back down, as it did over fuel taxes in 2018 and pension reform in 2025. It would scrap €20 billion of the planned €44 billion in savings, Lecornu would resign, and Le Pen or Bardella would win the 2027 election with 33–35% of the vote, pulling France further to the right.

The second and supposedly most likely scenario, assigned a 50% probability, would be a hardline response. Under calls to “Block Everything”, 600 demonstrations would take place, and the government would impose curfews, deploy police in schools and increase internet surveillance. The budget would again be forced through under Article 49.3, leaving France by 2027 an increasingly ungovernable country, with monthly protests and a recession of -0.5%.

The third, a worst-case scenario with a 20% probability, would begin with reports that a student had been killed by police gunfire. As in 2005 and 2023, the suburbs would erupt in flames. Macron would declare a state of emergency and postpone the election by three to six months.

Taken together, these developments are presented as evidence that France is entering a transition from the Fifth Republic to a Sixth Republic. The system established in 1958 — a strong president, a weak parliament and centralised rule from Paris — has collapsed. Public debt stands at €3.3 trillion. According to a 2026 IFOP poll, 42% of young people want to leave the country permanently, while 62% of police officers are openly dissatisfied with government policy. The system of governance must change, and the republic must come to an end, the argument goes, because revolutions follow recurring historical patterns. Every new order emerges amid similarly sharp reactions. France’s imperial decline, its expulsion from Africa and its loss of global influence are further intensifying the crisis.

Macron must go; if he does not leave voluntarily, the streets will force him out. Just as Pierre Pflimlin, the last prime minister of the Fourth Republic in 1958, lasted only 15 days before fleeing, Lecornu and Macron are now standing at the same precipice with approval ratings of around 15%. The army and police are no longer neutral. The largest police trade union, Alliance, declared back in 2024 that “We are not Macron’s bodyguards”. With 62% of police officers opposed to reforms, the moment law enforcement refuses to strike the people could mark the end of the Fifth Republic. France’s €3.3 trillion debt is ten times Greece’s debt, Germany itself is in recession, and no one can rescue France. Against the backdrop of the euro falling to $1.03, a French collapse would mean the disintegration of the European Union and the destruction of the euro.

A new world order is already being written directly on the streets. The order established at Yalta in 1945 and in Berlin in 1991 is now being shaken because mass protests have erupted simultaneously in 112 countries. The flight of Nepal’s prime minister, unrest in Morocco and France’s instability suggest that history moves in cycles, erupting every 30 years — in 1968, 1998 and 2026.

Ultimately, republics are temporary, while nations endure. The First, Second, Third and Fourth Republics disappeared, but the French nation remained. The Fifth Republic will also pass, the argument predicts, giving way to nationalists. Ipsos projections for 2027 reportedly put Le Pen, Bardella and the Zemmour political camp at a combined 44%, confirming this trend. Right-wing nationalists, who received just 2% in 1958, have now become the principal force in French politics. The same trend is sweeping Europe, with Germany’s AfD reaching 26% and Giorgia Meloni in power in Italy.

The idea that Europe is merely waiting for a new Hitler has become outdated, the article concludes: Hitler is already coming — only this time, he will have no moustache, wear a suit and use TikTok to control the masses.

Aziz Alibeyli

Political commentator