Is Ukraine deploying thousands of micro-drones near Iran’s border? Kyiv denies claims, but risks remain significant

Iranian media have circulated claims that Ukraine has deployed thousands of micro-drones and special forces near Iran’s borders, particularly in Iraqi Kurdistan. Kyiv has denied the reports. Although the allegations have not been independently verified, the potential consequences of such a scenario have renewed concerns about the impact of tensions between Iran and Ukraine on regional security.

According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, Ukrainian forces could be operating near Iran’s borders. Ukraine’s embassy in Iraq has denied the reports. At present, there is no independent evidence confirming that Kyiv has established drone bases in Iraqi Kurdistan or sent special forces to the region.

One factor that could underlie such a scenario is Iran’s military support for Russia. Tehran has been accused of supplying Moscow with unmanned aerial vehicles. The use of Iranian-made Shahed drones in the Russia–Ukraine war has further strained relations between Kyiv and Tehran.

If Ukraine’s use of drones at locations near Iranian territory were confirmed, it would represent a geographical expansion of the confrontation. Kyiv could potentially seek to affect Russia’s military capabilities and increase pressure on Moscow’s partners. However, there is no publicly available evidence that Ukraine has a specific plan to pursue such operations.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s geographical position makes the issue particularly sensitive. Located along Iran’s border, the region has previously been a focal point of tensions between Tehran and Kurdish armed groups. Iran has carried out missile and drone strikes against armed groups operating outside its territory. If allegations of possible Ukrainian-linked military activity were confirmed, they could heighten Iran’s concerns about border security and create further regional tensions.

Such a situation could also put Baghdad in a difficult position. The Iraqi government would have to prevent its territory from being used for military operations against neighbouring states while avoiding a new crisis in its relations with Iran. The positions taken by the United States and other regional actors could also influence the scale of any potential escalation.

Possible Iranian retaliation against Ukraine could create further risks of the confrontation spreading into other areas. These could include cyberattacks, diplomatic pressure and activities by armed groups with close ties to Tehran. However, these remain hypothetical scenarios rather than events that have occurred.

The key question is how credible the allegations circulated by Iranian media actually are.

Jala Rovshan