Moscow-Berlin channels closing one by one – Where is the diplomatic war heading?

The German government has decided to close Russia’s Consulate General in Bonn on September 18 over a drone incident at Leipzig Airport discovered in early August.

Following Berlin’s decision, the Russian Foreign Ministry decided to shut down Germany’s Consulate General in St. Petersburg and the Goethe cultural centres in Russia no later than September 18.

Speaking to TodayPress TV, political analyst Yusif Bagirzade said the reciprocal closure of consulates by Russia and Germany was an important political signal demonstrating the depth of the crisis in relations between the two countries.

The expert recalled that the developments followed a drone incident at Leipzig Airport, where the drone was reportedly carrying explosive material. He stressed that these events did not mark the beginning of a new process, but rather another stage in the mutual diplomatic restrictions that have been ongoing for some time.

“Back in 2023, Russia imposed restrictions on the number of personnel working at German diplomatic missions, while Berlin responded by deciding to close most of Russia’s consulates in Germany. Thus, the closure of consulates has already become a mechanism of pressure based on reciprocal measures in relations between the two countries,” the analyst explained.

According to Bagirzade, the main consequence is not a complete severing of diplomatic relations, but a weakening of their substance. Consulates and cultural centres are not limited to visa and documentation services. They serve as channels for contacts between societies, information exchange and informal diplomacy. The closure of these channels could lead both sides to assess each other’s intentions increasingly through the prism of security.

The political analyst added that the ongoing mutual accusations increase the likelihood of further deterioration in diplomatic relations. In particular, the growing accusations of espionage, sabotage, cyberwarfare and hybrid threats could lead to new diplomatic or economic countermeasures. However, the closure of consulates does not necessarily mean that diplomatic relations will be severed completely:

“At present, maintaining a channel of communication at the embassy level is of some importance to both Berlin and Moscow. Even during the most difficult periods in their relations, retaining a minimal diplomatic channel for crisis management, protecting citizens and possible future negotiations is in the interests of both sides.”

The political analyst believes that the normalisation of Russia-Germany relations in the near future appears difficult. On the contrary, as long as the war in Ukraine, security-related accusations and mutual distrust continue, further measures such as the closure of consulates may be taken.

Aysel Matlab