Nakhchivan drone attack, Tehran’s concerns and the Baku visit… — What was Fidan signaling?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan shared a post on his account on the social media platform “X” summarizing his visit to Azerbaijan.

He noted that he had paid an important visit to brotherly and allied Azerbaijan, with which Türkiye has always stood in cooperation and solidarity in the face of global challenges and regional developments. Hakan Fidan emphasized that Türkiye and Azerbaijan are two islands of stability in a region facing numerous problems.

What message was the Turkish minister conveying by referring to Türkiye and Azerbaijan as “islands of stability” in Baku? What external threats do the two Turkic countries face?

Speaking to TodayPress TV on the matter, political analyst Chingiz Shahbazi said that the phrase “Türkiye and Azerbaijan are two islands of stability in the region” used in Hakan Fidan’s social media post summarizing his visit to Azerbaijan should be viewed not merely as a diplomatic compliment, but also as a geopolitical message:

“Following Hakan Fidan’s visit to Baku on September 15–16, 2026, his statement specifically highlighted regional crises, peace in the South Caucasus, energy and transportation projects, as well as defense and security cooperation.

Fidan’s expression, ‘two islands of stability,’ indicates that Türkiye and Azerbaijan are not outside the region’s instability; on the contrary, they are at the center of these processes, acting as pillars of security. In this way, he presents Türkiye and Azerbaijan as the principal pillars of security in the region. Fidan’s statement that ‘there are numerous problems in the region’ specifically points to the region’s security environment. In other words, as crises in the Middle East, the Black Sea, and the South Caucasus have expanded in scale, Ankara and Baku have managed to maintain coordination between them. Fidan also emphasizes the brotherhood and, particularly, the alliance dimension of Türkiye-Azerbaijan relations, presenting this as a regional security partnership between the two countries. Hakan Fidan also noted in Baku that joint exercises, the exchange of experience, and cooperation in the defense industry would continue in the fields of defense and security. The fact that the Nakhchivan connection, the Zangezur direction, the Middle Corridor, and energy projects are also on the agenda demonstrates that security and economic issues are being considered together.”

The analyst said that all of this is aimed at preventing crises originating from outside from spilling over into Türkiye and Azerbaijan. At the same time, he said the message appears to be intended to assess the Türkiye-Azerbaijan axis against the backdrop of broader confrontations involving Iran, Russia, Israel, the United States, and Europe:

“As you know, this year, a drone attack was carried out on Nakhchivan airport from Iranian territory. The tensions that emerged between Azerbaijan and Iran could also have placed Türkiye in a difficult position. Of course, the strategic and military ties between Ankara and Baku can be cited among the factors behind this. Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel are also among the factors causing concern in Tehran. In this context, Fidan’s expression ‘islands of stability’ is particularly noteworthy. It is in the common interest of Türkiye and Azerbaijan to prevent the war taking place around Iran from spilling over into the South Caucasus. From this perspective, it would be more accurate to say that Hakan Fidan’s visit to Baku, the meetings he held, and the discussions he conducted were centered around the message of ‘two islands of stability.’ This expression, in fact, carries considerable strategic significance.”

Giymat Mahir