Will Iran pay the price for peace in Ukraine?

NATO is reportedly prepared to make certain concessions to Russia over Ukrainian territories, while Moscow could limit its support for Iran in return.

TodayPress TV reports, citing the “Monte Cristo” “X” account, that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said Ukraine is not expected to retain control over all its territories under a potential peace agreement. A day earlier, reports emerged that Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s senior security official, had travelled to Moscow.

Does this mean NATO is seeking to buy peace in Ukraine, with Russia’s assistance to Iran forming part of the deal?

Why does the timing matter?

The US midterm elections concluded on november 3. Reports suggest that the Pentagon’s three-day strike plan against Iran had been waiting until after the vote. Trump reportedly said he would destroy Iran “if necessary”, while Iran claimed to have shot down two more US drones near Qeshm Island.

Meanwhile, developments on the Ukraine front are accelerating. Putin has agreed “in principle” to trilateral talks after november 10. China has agreed to discussions on a possible meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on november 18-19. Critics are already calling it a new Yalta.

Two wars, one negotiating table and the same two-week window.

Trump has already linked the two issues.

On october 18, Trump explained why he had postponed the imposition of sanctions on Russia. One of the reasons was to prevent Moscow from assisting Iran.

In effect, Washington is already offering Moscow concessions in the form of potential sanctions relief in exchange for staying out of the war with Iran. Making concessions over Ukrainian territory would be a much bigger price to pay.

What is Russia giving Iran?

Drone components are being transported across the Caspian Sea. “Bloomberg” has reported that Russian missiles have reached Iran. Russian documents are also said to list 90 helicopter-mounted missile launchers.

Russian engineers are helping operate Iran’s only nuclear power plant, the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

Why is Tabriz concerned?

The 2025 Russia-Iran agreement contains no defence clause. In other words, under the agreement, Moscow has no obligation to defend Tabriz.

Furthermore, in december 2024, Russia did not prevent Bashar al-Assad’s fall, prioritising Ukraine instead. Rezaei’s visit to Moscow appears to be an attempt to secure guarantees before any strikes, rather than after them.

Why won’t Putin simply abandon Iran?

Moscow cannot afford to see Iran move closer to the United States. Iran plays an important role in securing Russia’s southern flank, stretching from the Caspian Sea to Central Asia.

Moreover, a prolonged war keeps oil prices at around $100 and depletes US ammunition stocks allocated to Europe. Therefore, Putin is expected to seek concessions in exchange for any de-escalation.

Putin never abandons a partner for free. He sells them.

Watch the talks after november 10, the November 18 meeting in Shenzhen and shipments across the Caspian Sea. If cargo shipments slow down following a deal on Ukraine, you will understand just how much Iran is worth to Moscow.

Zehra Mammadova