These groups could disappear from Azerbaijan in five years

Discussions continue in Azerbaijan over the declining birth rate.

The figures and trends being cited reflect a deeply troubling reality. A drop in the number of births from 166,000 to 96,000 over a decade — a sharp decline of around 42% — is not merely a statistic. It points to a profound demographic crisis that could shake the country’s future, economy and security foundations. Although many consider this a temporary trend, its consequences are likely to become increasingly evident across all areas of society over the next five to ten years.

In particular, the decline in births and the changing socio-economic landscape are set to reshape several key groups in Azerbaijan over the next five years. Some may become far less common, while others could face a critical decline in numbers.

First, primary school teachers in villages and small towns are likely to face difficulties. The sharp fall in births will begin to affect school enrolment, particularly first-grade admissions, in six years’ time. Due to a shortage of pupils, classes in rural areas and smaller districts may be merged, while schools with low enrolment could gradually close. As a result, thousands of primary and subject teachers may struggle to secure teaching hours, making job cuts inevitable.

Second, the traditional wedding hall and wedding services sector could face a major downturn. A shrinking younger population, the rising average age of marriage — approaching 30 — and limited incomes are bringing the era of huge wedding venues accommodating 300 to 400 guests to an end. Owners of large restaurants may go bankrupt or be forced to downsize. Thousands of waiters, chefs, musicians, photographers and wedding planners who depend on these events for their livelihoods could be pushed out of the market or forced to move into other sectors.

Third, small businesses selling children’s and baby products could struggle to survive. The birth of 70,000 fewer children each year directly affects domestic consumption. Children’s clothing shops, toy stores and retailers of baby products operating in local markets and neighbourhoods may be forced to close due to a shortage of customers.

Fourth, the supply of young, relatively inexpensive and flexible labour could shrink sharply. Sectors such as services, catering, construction and delivery have traditionally relied on readily available workers aged 18 to 25, often hired at low wages. Labour shortages could emerge across industries, making it increasingly difficult for businesses to recruit staff.

Fifth, the preschool education sector and paediatric workforce could also be affected. As the number of children declines, many kindergartens — both public and especially private institutions offering expensive services — may be forced to shut down. Demand for paediatricians and paediatric nurses at children’s hospitals and clinics could fall significantly.

Furthermore, in 15 to 18 years, the problem could directly affect the armed forces and pension system. The number of people eligible for military conscription could fall by nearly half. Meanwhile, as the number of pensioners grows, the number of young people paying taxes and social insurance contributions could decline sharply.

Unless meaningful social support measures, a child benefit system and affordable housing programmes for young families are introduced as an urgent state priority, the country could soon face the prospect of a rapidly ageing population, increasingly empty streets and economic stagnation.

Ismayil Shahli