“Great Britain” on the road to becoming “Little Britain”

Great Britain is on the brink of fragmentation.

Today, the First Ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland — Rhun ap Iorwerth, John Swinney and Michelle O’Neill — as well as Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, are meeting in Cardiff, the capital of Wales. In their capacity as party leaders, they are signing a memorandum of understanding. The document explicitly states that these nations have the right to self-determination, calls on Westminster to prepare for this change, and identifies the European Union as their future.

Wales and Scotland are formalizing their intention to become independent and join the EU, while Northern Ireland is formalizing its intention to unite with the Republic of Ireland.

For the first time, all three devolved governments are headed by forces advocating independence or unification.

Support in Scotland ranges between 45% and 50%, while the figures are rising in Wales and Northern Ireland. No referendum has yet been scheduled, and London says it is “off limits,” but political pressure has already taken shape and momentum is building. Constitutional change, the economy, energy and cooperation with Europe are all on the table.

This clearly demonstrates the fragility of the United Kingdom’s internal unity. It would be wrong to view this process as an isolated domestic development. The conflicts fueled or prolonged by the West in the Middle East and Eastern Europe — along with the energy crisis, migration flows, economic tensions and weakening international trust — are already beginning to bear fruit.

Discontent that emerged after Brexit, center-periphery tensions and global instability have strengthened national movements. As a result, one of the most traditional and seemingly stable states is being shaken from within.

Of course, immediate fragmentation will not occur. Legal obstacles, economic risks and the requirements for holding referendums remain in place. However, the Cardiff meeting shows that the “status quo” is no longer sustainable.

The scenario of the United Kingdom breaking apart is becoming a political reality, and this can be viewed as an echo of the tensions created by the West itself. The process is ongoing and should be closely monitored.

Jala Rovshan