What does Moscow want from Yerevan? – Military pressure expected

Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to make a decision on the European Union without delay. We know that after the Karabakh war, Yerevan froze the security agreement with Russia and moved toward Brussels while remaining in Moscow’s trade bloc. Yesterday’s meeting was tense. What conclusions can be drawn from the meeting? What does Putin think about Armenia?

Political analyst Elchin Khalidbeyli spoke to TodayPress TV about the issue.

He said that, most likely, Russia will seek to intensify political and economic-trade pressure on Armenia over the next several months.

Among these measures, the issue of Armenia’s expulsion from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as well as the possibility of removing Armenia from the Eurasian Economic Union, could come to the forefront.

“This means that a situation that will be far from easy for Armenia may emerge. Because Armenia, which is inclined to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization, is still dependent on the Eurasian Economic Union. Armenia’s entire economy is linked to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.

The closure of Russian markets and Armenia’s removal from the Eurasian Economic Union could create chaos in the Armenian economy and accelerate the process of economic collapse. Of course, they know this in the Kremlin as well. Therefore, at the initial stage, that is, at the current stage, they are primarily trying to exert pressure on Armenia in this direction,” the analyst noted.

The political analyst stressed that the Kremlin wants to force Armenia to make a choice:

“Now the official Yerevan is compelled to make a principled decision. In other words, it must either remain in the Eurasian Economic Union and abandon its goals of moving closer to the European Union, or accelerate the process of rapprochement with the European Union and take the dangerous and risky step of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union.

Russia is trying to pressure Armenia precisely in this direction. It hopes that, faced with the threat of the Armenian economy collapsing, the official Yerevan may abandon its intention to move closer to the West.”

The expert noted that, under the current circumstances, the Pashinyan government does not want to yield to Russian pressure:

“Yerevan’s relations with the West and its intention to move away from Russia are quite deep-rooted. An agreement on a strategic partnership has been reached between the United States and Armenia. At the same time, an application for membership in the European Union is being prepared and is expected to be submitted soon.”

He said that, in parallel, agreements have been signed between the United States and Armenia on the implementation of the Zangezur corridor, or the TRIPP project as referred to in the document signed at the White House, and initial steps are being taken toward implementing the project.

Elchin Khalidbeyli concluded by stressing that it does not appear particularly convincing that Armenia could abandon its agreements with the United States, give up the process of rapprochement with the European Union and return to Russia’s orbit in response to all this:

“This means that if Russia’s political and economic-trade pressure on Armenia fails to produce real results in the coming months, the Kremlin could resort to tougher measures against Armenia, including even measures of a military nature.”

Jala Rovshan